Photo: Johany Jutras – CFL Road Trip
CFL.ca Staff
With files from Steve Daniel, Head Statistician
TORONTO – The Stampeders host the Lions in hopes of extending their lead in the West while the Lions battle to stay in the playoff picture.
Will the Eskimos be able to make it 2-0 since Mike Reilly’s return under centre? Or will the Ticats cushion their seat atop the East?
The REDBLACKS travel to Mosaic Stadium to take on the Riders. Will the Riders get revenge for their Week 10 loss?
Finally, the Bombers and Als tangle in a crucial battle for playoff positioning as Montreal looks to grab the crossover spot in the West.
Equipped with the most up-to-date storylines, stats, milestones and trends, enjoy this week’s CFL.ca Game Notes.
Around the League
Offence Rebounds: After two weeks of defensive domination the four games in Week 12 produced 663 yards per game, an increase of 17% over the previous 8-game span. Week 12 contests averaged 46 points per game. Every team ran off at least one TD drive led by Toronto with four against Hamilton.
Half-time comebacks: Three teams overcame half-time deficits to win in Week 12 including Ottawa who shutout BC 17-0 in the second half to move up to second place, two wins up on Montreal. Edmonton bounced back from a 10-9 deficit at half to win 27-16 over Calgary, and Winnipeg also had a shutout over the final 30:00 against Saskatchewan (19-0) to snap a 4-game losing streak.
Ottawa in the Second half: Their blanking of BC on Sunday was the first time that the REDBLACKS had ever shutout an opponent in a second half – in their last two games Ottawa has outscored opponents in the final 30:00 half by 21-3 and 17-0 to win easily. For the season, Ottawa’s point differentials are -80 in the first half (91-171) but a solid +42 in the second (140-88).
REDBLACKS Possession: Ottawa played one of their finest road games dominating all aspects in their win at B.C. Place. The stat that stuck out the most was their Time of Possession of 41:45. In the 21 seasons since 1995 (when data exists for this result), it was the third highest ever recorded trailing only the record high of 42:14 set by Calgary against Toronto on July 1, 2010 and BC’s 41:57 on July 29, 2005 against Calgary. Burris was the QB in both of those games, winning with the Stamps and losing against the Lions.
Red Zone anomaly: Last week proved the point that Red Zone success rates can be deceiving. The four winning teams went just 6-of-15 for a 40% TD rate. Losing clubs had a 78% success rate but of course that raises the other aspect of Red Zone statistics. Winning clubs got there 15 times, losing clubs only 9 times.
4th Quarter winners: The four winning clubs last week outscored their opponents in the final 15:00 by a cumulative 38-13 and all held the scoring edge. For the season, teams that have wound up winning the game had the scoring edge in the 4th Quarter in 32 out 48 games (with many of the other 16 being tied).
Penalties: Last week’s games averaged 25.0 penalties continuing a trend that has had the weekly number fall between 23 and 26 calls per game over the last 4 weeks. The most important trend “inside” the penalty count was the reversal of the jump in roughness calls. Over Weeks 9-11, there were 5.0 roughing penalties per game; Week 12 that dropped to just 2.7 per game, 45% less.
Defensive TD Update: Week 12 had one more defensive TD (Winnipeg’s Kahlil Bass with a 59-yard interception return) to raise the CFL total to 26 on pace for 44, just ahead of a record rate (43 in 2004). Bass’ interception return TD was “pick 6” #19 in 2015, the same as the league-wide total all of last season.
Starting QB Update: In Sunday’s game vs Ottawa, John Beck became the CFL’s 18th different starting QB this year and fifth to make his CFL debut. Last year 21 different QBs started at least one game.
Forced Turnovers: In their first 7 games, Saskatchewan forced just 2 opponent giveaways (0.3 per game). In their last 4 games the Riders have forced 12 opponents turnovers for an average of 3.0 per game.
Hamilton up by two games: With a sweep of their back-to-back set with Toronto, Hamilton achieved something they have not had in 23 years. The last time that Hamilton led the East Division by two clear games was at the half-way mark of the 1992 season when they were at 6-3 and Ottawa and Winnipeg were at 4-5.
Zach Collaros: He led Hamilton to a share of #1 overall in the CFL at 8-3. He is now #1 in: yards (3286), TDs (24), Efficiency (113.2), 30+ completions (20), TD% (7%), yards/att (9.4), net offence per drive (29), and 2nd down conversion passes (82).
Blocking kicks: Week 12 had yet another blocked punt raising the total to 10 kicks that have now turned into a turnover or a missed scoring opportunity. Hamilton’s David Caldwell blocked an attempt by Dave Stala which resulted in a subsequent Ticats field goal and a two-possession game versus Toronto. Hamilton now has 3 blocked kicks this season and another deflected punt.
Not allowing “big plays” matters: The CFL defines “big plays” as 20+ rushes, 30+ passes, 30-yard punt and FG miss returns, as well 40+ yard kickoff returns. The three teams allowing the most this year are a combined 9-23 (BC, Winnipeg & Saskatchewan).
Gauging the Riders chances: Despite their loss at Winnipeg, Saskatchewan is not eliminated from playoff contention. However, the fewest wins by a playoff-bound club in the “cross-over era” was by Edmonton in 1999 with 6 victories. Winnipeg (2000), Calgary (2007), and Edmonton (2012) each got in with 7 wins, however no other playoff team since 1996 has had less than 8 wins. To get to 7 wins, Saskatchewan would need to go 6-1 the rest of the way.
Coaches’ Challenges: Last week set a new high mark for coaches’ challenges in either 2014 or 2015 as there were 10 made in the four games. Of those, three were successful overturning the ruling on the field. For the year, 21 of 63 challenges have been successful for 33.3% mark. They have come at a slightly higher rate than 2014 on pace for 106 (100 in 2014).
Home field advantage: This year has shown a marked trend toward home wins as 30 of 48 games (62.5%) have gone in their favour. As recently as 2013, home teams won just 38 of 72 games for just a slight edge for them of just 52.8%.
Leading with 15:00 left: How often does the team with the lead heading into the 4th Quarter hold it and go on to win? This season that is 76% of the time (34 out of 45). As high as that is, it is still less than 2014 when 79% of team leading after three held their lead. Calgary is yet to lose when leading after three quarters at 6-0 and Hamilton is 7-1 in that situation.
An unusual run: In each of the last 18 CFL games this year, the winning team has built a lead of least 10 points, while those 18 losing teams never lead at all 10 times.
Against the West: Hamilton is 5-1 vs Western teams in 2015 for an .833 pct. and that is among the best they have ever done. One more win would match the club record (1992, 2004) for wins in a season against the West with still 3 more games to go (BC, Calgary & Saskatchewan). It is their best winning % against Western clubs since 1969 (5-0 that year).
Hamilton 35 points off 8 EDM Turnovers: Edmonton had 8 turnovers in the first game of 2015 against the Ticats. Hamilton scored 35 points off of those 8 giveaways – the 35 points is highest-ever total since the CFL has tracked this stat (since 2008).
Lots of Points: The Ticats lead the CFL in scoring at 35.6 points per game and that is well ahead of their all-time club record of 33.5 set in 1999. At this point, that is the 12th highest per game points total in CFL history.
Edmonton’s #1 defence: The Eskimos lead the CFL allowing just 285.5 yards per game and are #1 in both components of that – in rushing with just 74.0 yards against and in pass defence at 230.5 yards per game. They are #1 in fewest pts allowed at 17.9/game.
Home and Away: Hamilton is 10-1 at home in their last 11 games (all at THF). On the road in that same 11-game span they are 6-5. At home their scoring differential in 2015 is +103 (189-86); on the road thus far it is a CFL-best +68 (203-135). In their 7 wins, Field Position has been a big key: in their 7 wins their average starting point is the 40 yard-line; in their 4 losses they have started at the 33. When winning, the Esks have made only 13 turnovers compared to a total of 18 in their 4 losses (4.5 per game). In their 7 wins, Edmonton has made 24 of their 31 “big plays”. They have had just 7 “big plays” in their 4 losses.
Hamilton on 2nd down: The CFL has had 2nd down conversions as an official statistic since 2008 and no club has ever approached what the Ti-Cats are doing in 2015. They are at 60.3% through 10 games, a full 5% better than the all-time best set by Montreal in 2008 at 55.0%. Hamilton has converted an incredible 85% of their conversions in the 2nd-&-1 to 3 yard range.
Lawrence vs Banks: This game features the #1 and #3 Combined Yards leaders. Kendial Lawrence has 1,664 yards to lead the league, while Banks has 1,221. In his last game, Banks piled up 173 total yards though in his previous 3 games he had just 243. Last week, Lawrence was held to just 81 total yards by Calgary after a span of 5 games where piled up 193.8 yards per game.
Hamilton losses: In their 8 wins, the Ti-Cats average margin is +22.4 points; their three losses have come by 1, 4 & 3 points. They are 8-0 when reaching 30 points, and 0-3 when they do not get to that mark.
Justin Medlock #1 all-time: Ranks #1 all-time among Field Goal Kickers with at least 150 attempts with a % of 87.1%.
Few 2-point converts: Only one club has attempted fewer two-point converts than the Ticats and the Eskimos. Each has tried only 3 times, one more than Montreal with just 2 so far.
Sean Whyte #3 all-time: Ranks #3 all-time among Field Goal Kickers with at least 150 attempts with a % of 83.4% (trailing only Medlock and Rene Paredes). Whyte is 4-of-4 this season since joining the Eskimos two games ago. From 40 yards or less in his career he is now at 141-for-160 and a mark of 91.9%. He now ranks #26 in all-time CFL scoring with 829 career points.
Three in the Top 13: Edmonton and Hamilton dominate CFL receiving leaders in 2015 and share the distinction of being the only clubs to have three receivers ranked in the Top 13. For Edmonton, Bowman, Stafford & Walker have combined for 131 receptions and 1,839 yards – their yardage is 60% of Edmonton’s team total of 3,077 yards. For Hamilton, Toliver, Tasker & Sinkfield have 117 receptions for 1,773 yards and 13 TDs but of note, the trio has missed 7 games.
4 games in a row at 60%+: The Ticats have an incredible streak of converting on second going. They have now gone 4 games in a row converting at least 63% of their second down opportunities into a new series (or TD).
Hamilton on 2nd down: The CFL has had 2nd down conversions as an official statistic since 2008 and no club has ever approached what the Ticats are doing in 2015. They are at 60.6% through 11 games, almost 6% better than the all-time best set by Montreal in 2008 at 55.0%. Hamilton has converted an incredible 79% of their conversions in the 2nd-&-4 to 6 yard range.
Looking Ahead
Consecutive losses: The Stampeders have not lost two games in a row since July 12, 2012, a span of 62 games (Toronto & Montreal Jul 7 & 12). They have not lost consecutive games to Western teams since September 25, 2010 (Saskatchewan & BC Sep 17-25/10). That streak covers 89 total games and 54 against West Division teams.
Stamps at home: BC is one of only two clubs to defeat Calgary at McMahon Stadium in the last 16 Stampeder home games (Winnipeg was the other) and Calgary is 16-2 in that run. In their last 29 home games dating back to Sep 3/12, Calgary is 26-3.
When Cornish is out: Jon Cornish made his first start for Calgary on Sep 25/11 and including that date Calgary has played 72 games since then. Over those 72 games, the 2013 MOP has started 56 times and missed 16 starts. In his 56 starts, Calgary has gone 40-16 .714; in the 16 games he has now missed they are even better at 13-3 .813.
First 28 QB Starts: Calgary is now 23-5 when Bo Levi Mitchell starts at QB after last week’s loss to Edmonton.
Low Carries: Last week’s total of 4 carries for Harris was his lowest total as a starter since a 35-14 loss to Saskatchewan on Oct 19/13 (4 for 29 yards).
Calgary & BC successful challengers: The Stampeders challenged twice last week and were able to overturn both initial calls; the only other club in 2015 to do that was BC on Jul 4/15 vs Ottawa. Last year only three clubs all year went two-for-two.
Last week EDM: Calgary started very slowly last week as Edmonton held them to just 113 first half net yards and 7 first downs. Calgary did not score in the 1st Quarter for the second straight game but bounced back to lead 10-9 at the half. Edmonton forced two late Calgary turnovers however to win 27-16. The 352 passing yards for Mike Reilly was just the second 300+ game posted by an opposing QB this season.
Last week vs OTT: The Lions were beaten by Ottawa for the first time at home since October 6, 1990 and that broke a run of 22-1 vs Ottawa clubs dating back to October 1979. BC was held to just 18:15 of Possession Time and in the 21 seasons since 1995 when data exists for this result, it was the 3rd-lowest ever. That trailed only the record-low 17:46 for Toronto vs Calgary in July 2010.
Calgary’s recent offence: The Stampeders have now gone two games scoring just 16 points in each after averaging 31.4 ppg in the previous 7 contests. Over the last 2 games, Calgary has only 2 TD drives and 6 FGs in 33 possessions with 11 punts and 5 turnovers.
Lack of BC long gainers: The Lions have now gone three games without a “big play” on offence with their longest rush being just 14 yards (and only two going 10+ yards), and their longest pass being just 29 yards.
Rene Paredes: Holds the CFL’s longest current FG made streak at 15 in a row and has missed just three times all season (88.9%). Paredes’ longest streak of 2014 was 11 straight made. Prior to the current 15 straight he has now made, he had gone just 20-for-30 dating back to the final 6 games of 2014, a 67% mark.
Calgary Turnover Ratio: Over their first 7 games, the Stamps were a +7 in the Turnover ratio category. Over their last 4 games they have gone -5 with 6 interceptions and 3 fumbles lost.
BC 2 wins in last 7: The last time that the Lions won only twice in a span of 7 games was to close out the 2014 season. In their last 17 games the Lions W-L record is just 6-11.
Better Late Than Never: This is the latest date that the Stamps and Lions have had their first meeting of the regular season in 62 years of competition.
Fantasy Notes
QB: Zach Collaros (41.5%), Bo Levi Mitchell (28.4%), Henry Burris (9.0%), Kevin Glenn (6.0%), Mike Reilly (5.5%)
RB: Jeremiah Johnson (47.0%), Jerome Messam (16.7%), Ray Holley (5.3%), Cameron Marshall (4.8%), Tyrell Sutton (4.7%)
REC: Eric Rogers (32.9%), Terrell Sinkfield (24.0%), Terrence Toliver (20.3%), Luke Tasker (20.1%), Kenny Stafford (12.3%)
Flex: Terrell Sinkfield (11.1%), Terrence Toliver (8.3%), Jeremiah Johnson (8.2%), Eric Rogers (7.7%), Luke Tasker (6.2%)
Kicker: Boris Bede (31.9%), Rene Paredes (20.9%), Justin Medlock (18.6%), Paul McCallum (10.5%), Chris Milo (4.7%)
Defence/ST: Calgary (34.1%), Hamilton (22.1%), Ottawa (12.6%), Saskatchewan (11.4%), Montreal (9.9%)
