CFL.ca Staff
With files from Steve Daniel, Head Statistician
The final week of the season is just around the corner as some teams start shifting their focus to the playoffs while others look towards next year.
Ricky Ray is back under centre for the Argos as they look to enter the postseason with some momentum. Meanwhile, the Bombers are likely to lean on Dominque Davis, who will be making his first career start.
In the week’s most important matchup, the Tiger-Cats and REDBLACKS face off in the second half of a back-to-back with first place in the East on the line. The Ticats need to win by six or more points in order to earn a bye to the East Final or else the division goes to the nation’s capital.
In another intriguing matchup, the Stampeders travel to face the Lions in a preview of what will be the West Semi-Final. Neither team is expected to tip much of their hand but it will be a good feeling to enter next week with a victory under the belt.
Finally, the Riders and Als both look to finish their seasons on a winning note.
Equipped with the most up-to-date storylines, stats, milestones and trends, enjoy this week’s CFL.ca Game Notes.
Around the League
Record for consecutive close games: Before their last game (a 27-20 defeat at home to Ottawa) the previous four Bombers’ games were each decided by 3 points or less. The only other time in CFL history that any team had 4 consecutive games decided by 3 points or less was Saskatchewan in 1987 (margins of +2, +2, -1 & -2 points to start that year).
Almost There: The last 7 Winnipeg games have all been decided by 7 points or less. That is the longest such streak for Winnipeg since 6 games in a row in 1979.
Winnipeg – 4 Starting QBs: With the loss of #1 QB Drew Willy after just 7 games, the Bombers have had to employ four different starting QBs this season. This week, if the club elects to start Dominique Davis over Matt Nichols, that would push the total to 5 different QB Starters – one short of the all-time CFL record set by Winnipeg in 1983. That year, the Bombers started (in order) Mark Jackson, Nickie Hall, Dieter Brock, John Hufnagel, Norman Gibbs and Tom Clements. Kudos to Paul Wiecek for pushing the research on this record.
Facing the Bombers: Ricky Ray brings a 5-1 record vs Winnipeg for Toronto into this game. That 5-1 mark has come against 4 different Winnipeg starting QBs with Davis or Nichols potentially his fifth opposing QB. He has started against Alex Brink, Buck Pierce, Max Hall and Drew Willy since 2012.
Playoff Streaks: The Alouettes magnificent run of 19 consecutive years in the playoffs (the second-longest in league history) came to end with their loss last week. The Lions’ win over Toronto extended their current run to 19 consecutive years in the playoffs matching Montreal’s mark and they will travel to Calgary for the West Semi-Final.
Record for Punters: The Argos are now up to a CFL record seven punters in a single season. Here is the flow as Toronto fills in for the absence of Swayze Waters: Waters, Stala, Pfeffer, M. Palardy, Alix, J. Palardy, Rogers.
Back to 1957: The last time that Hamilton and Ottawa played head-to-head on the final weekend of the regular season to decide first place was in 1957. Hamilton was 9-4 and Ottawa at 8-5 (but Ottawa held a 2-1 season series lead) going into their final game played on November 9, 1957 in Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats won 13-12 scoring the 1st place clinching points with 0:40 to play after a 60-yard TD march. The winning TD came on a 3-yard run with Hamilton facing a 3rd down and 2 desperation situation. Total Points was not involved as it is this season. The loss was costly for Ottawa as they could have avoided the 1957 Semi-Final vs Montreal which Ottawa lost 24-15.
Back to 1985: The last time that Hamilton and Ottawa settled first place on the final weekend of the regular season at all was in 1985 when they (along with Montreal) were each at 7-8 going in. Hamilton and Montreal won that week while Ottawa lost to drop to third and have a road game in the East Semi-Final.
QB Situations getting to the Grey Cup: Since 1960, no team has won the Grey Cup starting a QB that day who had had fewer than 5 regular season starts. The last team to win the Grey Cup with only one regular season start was Winnipeg in 1959 with Ken Ploen. Ploen was primarily a DB that season as Jim Van Pelt finished #4 in the CFL with 2,706 passing yards and an 11-4 record before being injured in the next-to-last game of the season. The last team to win a Grey Cup with a #3 QB was Winnipeg in 1988 (Sean Salisbury, 5 starts behind Roy Dewalt and then Tom Muecke).
Leading Passers winning the Grey Cup: Henry Burris will likely lead the CFL in passing this year and he will have to buck a significant trend of late. No CFL leading passer (by yards) has gone on to win the Grey Cup that year since Damon Allen in 2000. Since 1954 (61 seasons), the leading passer in the league has won the Grey Cup just 9 times.
Ottawa 7 wins out of 9: Ottawa has now won 7 times in a 9-game span for the first time since 1983 and that has pushed them to their first playoff berth since 1994. A win this week would tie their club record of 11 wins in one season first set in 1949 and matched in 1969, 1972 and 1978. If the REDBLACKS win out in 2015 and wind up at 12-6 they would finish in first place for the first time since 1978 (11-5).
4th Quarters for Hamilton: The Ticats have been outscored in the 4th Quarter in each of their last 6 games (53-14 in total). They have lost the 4th Quarter 10 times this season.
Scoring oddity: The REDBLACKS are 5 games over .500 at 11-6 but have actually been outscored this year by 426 to 420. Only one club in all of CFL history has ever finished 5 games or more above .500 and been outscored for that season: Montreal in 1997 at 13-5 and totals of 509 PF and 532 PA.
Hamilton QB sacks – W vs L: In their 10 wins, Hamilton has 28 QB sacks; in their 7 defeats they have made just 8 sacks.
Hamilton Offence – W vs L: In their 10 wins, Hamilton has averaged 386 yards of net offence including 313 via the pass; in their 7 losses they have averaged almost 100 less yards per game at 289. In all 10 of their wins, they have built a 10-point or greater lead and gone on to win. They have thrown only 3 interceptions total in their 10 wins, and 13 in their 7 losses.
Ottawa Offence – W vs L: In their 11 wins, Ottawa has averaged 430 yards of net offence; in their 6 losses they have averaged almost 140 less yards per game at 292 per game. Passing yardage split between wins and losses is 348 versus just 269 yards on average in their 6 losses. Rushing attempts split: 22 per game in their wins, 14 per game in their 6 defeats.
4 wins a row?: The REDBLACKS have now won three straight games – the last Ottawa team to win 4 games in a row was back in 1991 (Aug 8-29/91) after an 0-4 start to reach 4-4.
CFL Record for Completions: Ottawa has recorded 471 pass completions through their first 17 games and are on pace for 499 which would be a new CFL record. The existing record is 495 and was set by Toronto in 1998 (and tied by Montreal in 2008). Ottawa needs 25 completed passes this week to establish a new CFL team completions record mark.
Individually this season, Henry Burris has 453 completions which is the 5th best single-season total in CFL history. He needs 27 completions set a new CFL record – here are the Top 5 season totals: R.Ray 479 (2005), A.Calvillo 472 (2008), D.Flutie 466 (1991), K.Austin 459 (1992), & H.Burris 453 (2015).
Four at 1,000 yards?: Ottawa now has three receivers over 1,000 yards this season: Chris Williams (#3, 1,182), Brad Sinopoli (#10, 1,006) and Ernest Jackson (#11, 1,002). Ottawa has never before had three 1,000-yard receivers in the same season. Greg Ellingson at 919 yards needs 81 this week to make Ottawa the third club to ever have four in one season (the only other two teams were Montreal in 2004 and again in 2005).
Consistent Ottawa lineup: The REDBLACKS have made very few week-to-week lineup changes recently. In their last 6 games, 37 out of a possible 42 players have played each game with only 5 spots being rotated among other players.
Ottawa in close games: Each of the last 4 Ottawa games have been decided by 7 points or less (that has not happened since 1996). Ottawa is 3-1 in those 4 games and can set a club record with a total of 12 wins in 2015.
3 Hamilton QB starters in 2015: With the absence of Zach Collaros and Jeff Mathews this week, it will be two years running that the Ticats will employ at least 3 different starting QBs. Prior to that you have to go back to 2008 for three Hamilton QB starters (Casey Printers, Quinton Porter and Richie Williams).
Hamilton offence: Last week’s game at Ottawa was only the second time all year that the Tiger-Cats did not score an offensive TD in a game. The 6 points was their lowest team total since Jul 21/13 vs Saskatchewan (0-37).
Ticat Turnover Ratio: Hamilton has a +28 Turnover Ratio in their 10 wins, and are -13 in their 7 losses in 2015. They have gone -5 over their last two games.
Hamilton 8 defensive TDs: The 8 scores by the Hamilton defence is second-highest ever by the Ticats and two short of their club record of 10 in 1971.
Hamilton back-to-back in first?: If Hamilton can take this back-to-back set of games with Ottawa on total points, they would record back-to-back first place finishes across 2014-2015. The Tiger-Cats have not done that since 1980-1981. This home-and-home set is the first between Hamilton and Ottawa since September 13-19, 1992.
Player Highlights
Ricky Ray: The Argos’ starting QB brings a 99-90-1 record into the final regular season game of 2015 and can join seven other CFL QBs at the 100-win mark: Anthony Calvillo 167, Damon Allen 163, Ron Lancaster 158, Tracy Ham 115, Henry Burris 113, Danny McManus 103 and Matt Dunigan 100. This would be his 24th career start vs Winnipeg (12-10-1). His 100th win as a starter would tie Matt Dunigan for #7 all-time.
Greg Jones: Trying to reach 100 tackles and enters the final game with 94. Only Darryl Ford (113, 1991), Calvin Tiggle (121, 1994) and Kevin Eiben (110 in 2004, 113 in 2005 & 100 in 2010) have reached 100 DT in a season for Toronto. If Jones and Kahlil Bass (93) can make it to 100 that would be a CFL record of 5 in one year at 100+ tackles.
Greg Jones II: Is now up to 111 total tackles and needs just 7 combined defensive and ST tackles to match Kevin Eiben’s total of 118 from 2005. That 118 total is #2 all-time on the Argos behind only Calvin Tiggle’s 127 in 1994.
Kahlil Bass: A search through Blue Bombers’ rookie tackle records revealed that Kahlil Bass is now #1 all-time for single-season high. The previous mark was set by Ryland Wickman in 2000 with 84.
Troy Stoudermire: The Bombers’ special teams ace has 1,640 kick return yards in 2015. That gives him the 9th largest single-season kick return yardage total in club history behind Charles Roberts at #8 (1,798 yards in 2001).
Trevor Harris: Through the first 13 games, Harris’ passer rating was 106.0 (TD:INT Ratio of 2.23 to 1); over the last 3 games it is 83.2 with 5 interceptions and 3 TD passes.
Jamaal Westerman: The first-year CFLer is #2 in the CFL in sacks with 15. He could become the first Winnipeg player to lead the entire CFL in QB sacks since Philip Hunt in 2010 (16).
Henry Burris: Needs 26 completions to match Ricky Ray’s CFL single-season record of 479 (2005).
Ryan Phillips: Recorded his 46th career interception last week and needs just one to reach the all-time Top 20.
John Bowman: Now has 99 QB sacks tying Will Johnson for #10 and needs just one to reach 100.
Andrew Harris: Needs just 3 rushing yards to reach 1,000 for the second time in his career.
Nik Lewis: Needs 7 yards to reach 12,000 career receiving yards and 22 to pass Derrell Mitchell for #9 all-time.
1000 yards receiving: Weston Dressler (928), Greg Ellingson (919), Ryan Smith (847), Nick Moore (843).
100 tackles: Greg Jones (94), Kahlil Bass (93).
Jeremiah Masoli: If Masoli starts this week, it will be his second in the CFL. His first was on July 18, 2014 against Calgary when he posted numbers of 9-of-20 for 107 yards, one interception, no TD passes and was sacked once. He has not thrown a pass in a regular season game since Aug 16/14 vs Calgary (7-of-10 for 68 yards, one INT).
Looking Ahead
Avoiding a season-ending losing streak: The Argos need to win to avoid their longest season-ending losing run in a playoff year since 1979. The Argos made the playoffs in 1979 despite losing their final 4 games.
Close Battle: The main difference in the last time the Bombers and Argos met was the turnover margin won by Toronto 4-0. Sacks were even at 3, TOP differed by just 0:10, and the margin after each of the first three quarters was no larger than two points.
Toronto in the playoffs: The Argos have another chance to return to the Grey Cup following their last visit in 2012. Their playoff berth is the fourth in the last 6 years and 3rd in 4 years under Coach Milanovich. A win this week would give them a two-win increase over 2014 and get back into post-season play after an absence of just one year.
Fantasy Notes
QB: Henry Burris (39.0%), Bo Levi Mitchell (16.1%), Kevin Glenn (12.9%), Jonathon Jennings (12.9%), Ricky Ray (5.1%)
RB: Jerome Messam (27.7%), Tyrell Sutton (18.9%), Cameron Marshall (10.6%), William Powell (8.8%), Andrew Harris (6.2%)
REC: Emmanuel Arceneaux (26.7%), Terrell Sinkfield (26.0%), Eric Rogers (18.6%), Ernest Jackson (15.2%), Chris Williams (13.0%)
Flex: Terrell Sinkfield (12.8%), Emmanuel Arceneaux (10.4%), Ernest Jackson (6.8%), Greg Ellingson (5.5%), Tyrell Sutton (3.9%)
Kicker: Boris Bede (25.6%), Chris Milo (20.7%), Rene Paredes (17.0%), Justin Medlock (12.4%), Tyler Crapigna (9.6%)
Defence/ST: Ottawa (32.2%), Calgary (18.2%), Montreal (14.8%), Hamilton (11.5%), Toronto (8.2%)
